Ministry of Earth Science
Under the Monsoon Mission, Ministry has developed the state-of-the-art weather and climate prediction models, which are now in operational use. These models include models for short range to medium range (1-10 days), extended range (10days to 30 days) and seasonal (up to one season). The models developed under the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) have shown very high skill in predicting important weather events on different time scales during the last 3years.
The overall objective of NMM is to improve the monsoon prediction over India on all time scales and hence it is implemented for the whole country which includes all the States and UTs
- It was launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in 2012.
- Aim: To improve the forecasting skills by setting up a state-of-the-art dynamic prediction system for monsoon rainfall different time scales.
- NMM builds a working partnership between the academic and research and development (R&D) organisations, both national and international.
- Its augmentation with the HPC facilities has helped the country in achieving a paradigm shift in weather and climate modelling for operational weather forecasts.
Targets of Monsoon Mission:
- Development of a seamless prediction system using monsoon mission model, on different time scales, like Seasonal (for whole Monsoon season), Extended range (up-to 4 weeks), Short range prediction (up-to 5days).
- Initiate and coordinate working partnership between Indian and foreign institutes to develop a system for prediction of extremes and climateapplications
- Develop and implement system for climate applications having social impacts (such as agriculture, flood forecast, extreme events forecast, wind energy,etc.)
- Advanced data assimilation system for preparing high quality data for model predictions.
Major achievements of NMM during the last three years are:
- Setting up of an advanced prediction system for Seasonal prediction; Extended range prediction and Very high-resolution Short-rangeprediction.
- Commissioning of a Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for short and medium range prediction at 12km.
- A remarkable improvement in the skill of the forecasts especially in the short to medium range has beennoticed.
- The Cyclone track and intensity prediction has also shown a steady improvement over the last threeyears.
- The operationalization of Monsoon Mission dynamical model (MMCFS) to prepare operational seasonal forecast of monsoon rainfall and temperatures during the hot and cold weather seasons overIndia.
- Use of MMCFS and extended range prediction system for preparing regional seasonal forecast outlook for south Asia under WMO recognised Regional Climate Center and South Asia Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)activities.
- Development of an algorithm to monitor and predict the Monsoon Intra-seasonal Oscillations (MISO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the extendedrange.
- Development of an index to predict the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones and other cyclonic disturbances over the north IndianOcean.
- Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over all the Indian river basin havebeen operationallyimplemented.
- Probabilistic (percentile based) forecast for extreme wind, precipitation havebeen established.
- GFS/GEFS forecasts have been extensively used to provide guidance to Forest fire possibility and also to Renewable Energy Sectors namely, wind andsolar.
- Development of a high resolution regional re-analysis product, IMDAA at very high resolution of 12km.
- Several scientists have been trained for modelling & forecasts through Monsoon Mission Program and capacity building activities have been done through targetedtrainings.
The overarching objective of the Scheme is as follows:
To conduct R & D for improving forecast of weather, climate and other hazardous events in real-time for delivery of a reliable weather and climate service. This requires
- Augmentation of observations and their assimilation into weather and climate models
- Understanding the physical processes through fieldcampaigns
- Developing and running of high resolution models for giving forecast in allscales
- Translating science to service and itdelivery tosociety
- Improving and acquiring the requiredinfrastructure
There are nine sub-schemes under ACROSS which are as follows:
- Commissioning of Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radars(DWRs)-IMD
- Upgradation of ForecastSystem-IMD
- Weather & Climate Services-IMD
- Atmospheric ObservationsNetwork-IMD
- Numerical Modeling of Weather and Climate–NCMRWF
- Monsoon Mission II including High Resolution (12km) global ensemble forecast system (NITI Aayog identified activity) –IITM
- Monsoon Convection, Clouds and Climate Change(MC4)-IITM
- Centre For Climate Change Research (CCCR) including Virtual WaterCenter
- Physics & Dynamics of TropicalClouds(PDTC)
- Atmospheric Research Testbeds (ART) for process studies andNational Climate Reference Network(NCRN)
- Metro Air Quality and Weather Service(MAQWS)